Physician specialist shortage—including radiologists—could climb to almost 42,000 by 2033

A new analysis released on Friday estimates that the U.S. shortage of radiologists and other physician specialists could climb to nearly 42,000 by 2033.

Across all types of doctors, this shortfall could reach as high as 139,000, the Association of American Medical Colleges reported in its sixth annual analysis of staffing trends. The investigation was completed by research firm IHS Markit last year, prior to the coronavirus crisis, which may have only exacerbated some of these trends.

“The gap between the country’s increasing healthcare demands and the supply of doctors to adequately respond has become more evident as we continue to combat the COVID-19 pandemic,” AAMC President and CEO David Skorton, MD, said in a June 26 statement. “The challenge of having enough doctors to serve our communities will get even worse as the nation’s population continues to grow and age.”

London-based IHS Markit reached its conclusions by analyzing supply and demand scenarios and supplementing them with other data including physician work hours and retirement trends. All told, the firm predicted a shortage ranging from 17,100 to 41,900 in the “other specialties” category that includes radiology, pathology, neurology, anesthesiology, psychiatry and others. An AAMC spokesman could not pinpoint the exact number attributed only to radiologists.

The report noted that hospitals particularly in rural areas are deploying a “patchwork” of solutions to address these shortages, expanding scope of practice laws, graduating docs early, hiring others out of retirement, and relocating physicians from other geographies. Researchers said that various factors such as the aging population—a primary driver of these shortages—and national goals to expand access to care could further increase doc demand. But other innovations in medicine, meanwhile, may potentially offset these trends.